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Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39518/-1
CME Note: An asymmetric, fast, and relatively diffuse CME from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) seen to the north-northeast in SOHO C2 associated with an M8.4 flare peaking at 2025-06-15T18:07Z; the eruption is seen as significant dimming somewhat to the northwest of the active region with post-eruptive arcades and EUV wave also seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is likely deflected northwards out of the ecliptic, but analysis from M2M suggests that the southern flank may graze Earth early on 2025-06-18. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-18T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 15/2110UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 1225
Longitude (deg): -12
Latitude (deg): 52
Half-angular width (deg): 29

Notes:

Lead Time: 56.50 hour(s)
Difference: 19.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2025-06-16T22:30Z

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